自测原文

A 板块｜贸易占比不算最大，能源价值却在上升

The Panama Canal carries just 5-6% of world maritime trade. That is less than some other chokepoints, such as the Strait of Malacca near Singapore. Yet its importance is growing, both because of the Middle East war and because of enduring changes to flows of goods and energy. This could be a boon to the country of 4.6m people that hosts it, but only if it can avoid becoming a pawn in the rivalry between China and the United States.

The goods that pass along the canal run the gamut, from toys to cars, fertilisers to fruit. But its significance as a route for energy shipments is especially striking, largely due to the United States' rise as an exporter of LNG and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG). The canal built the infrastructure needed to accept this traffic in 2016. It currently moves around 1m barrels of LPG a day, much of it travelling from the Gulf Coast to petrochemical plants in Asia.

B 板块｜一边缺水，一边被推入大国竞争

Yet Mr Vásquez—and his designated successor, Ilya Espino de Marotta, who is due to take over in October—face two big challenges. One is the canal's vulnerability to climate change. Its locks are supplied by lakes which depend on rainfall for replenishment. A severe drought in 2023-24 forced the authority to cut daily transits to as few as 18. It also caused many LNG carriers to switch to a route around the Cape of Good Hope, despite it taking longer; many of them have not yet returned to the canal, says Francis Zeimetz of Panama's Maritime Chamber. This year's El Niño could cause similar disruption.

The most pressing problem, however, is geopolitics. Panama has recently found itself in the middle of a rivalry between the United States and China. Since returning to the White House in January 2025, Mr Trump has repeatedly threatened to “take back” the Panama Canal, which the United States built and operated from 1914 until it handed it to Panama to run in 1999. It seems like bluster, but it is a theme he returns to. This month he again ruminated on it in two speeches. The attention is a shock after years when Panama appeared to fall off the maps in Washington. The United States did not post an ambassador to Panama between 2018 and 2022.