自测原文

A 板块｜双巨头交付太慢，小飞机等来窗口

The Brazilian company is a fraction of the size of Airbus and Boeing. But it has had a remarkable few years. Demand is soaring not only for its smaller passenger planes, but also for the private and military jets it offers. In 2021 the company delivered a total of 141 planes. This year it might reach 255. On July 24th the company reported that its order backlog had reached a record $34.5bn. Francisco Gomes Neto, Embraer's boss, sees an opportunity for “substantial growth” ahead. Investors agree. Since the start of 2021 its share price has risen roughly ten-fold, far outpacing those of Airbus or Boeing (see chart). Some now speculate that Embraer may take a tilt at the market for larger jets, going nose-to-nose with the aerospace industry's twin giants.

Embraer is benefiting from a number of tailwinds. Airlines these days must wait eight to ten years for a large narrow-body plane from Airbus or Boeing, which have a combined order backlog of 16,000 passenger jets thanks to rising demand for air travel and long-running supply-chain snags dating back to the covid-19 pandemic. That has led to a surge in demand for the smaller E2, which can be delivered in less than two years.

B 板块｜机会难得，赌注也高得惊人

Breaking the duopoly's grip would be a huge undertaking. Bombardier's attempt nearly bankrupted it and ended in a forced sale of the programme for a nominal sum to Airbus in 2018 (where it became the A220). Guillaume Faury, Airbus's boss, has warned Embraer to “think twice”. Yet the rewards of taking even a small share of a market that Boeing puts at 36,000 jets over the next two decades would also be far greater than for a new private jet. Ron Epstein of Bank of America says it would take Embraer to the “next level”.

Embraer may never again have such an opportunity to put its experience in manufacturing and marketing commercial jets to work. Mr Gomes Neto points out that over 20 years or so it has certified almost 20 new aircraft—an impressive performance. The firm's reputation means that prospective customers would take it seriously. But it would need to find partners to stump up some of the $10bn or so that the new plane would cost to develop, says Alberto Valerio of UBS, a bank, including perhaps an engine-maker and other suppliers, as well as customers and outside investors.